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By Vikram Iyer — 2 July 2026 — 3 min read

Portugal is preparing to face Croatia in the World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match in Toronto. The fixture, scheduled for Friday, holds significant emotional weight for Portugal as it coincides with the first death anniversary of late striker Diogo Jota.

Coach Roberto Martinez stated that his team views the knockout stage as a “second World Cup,” emphasizing the importance of preparation. He acknowledged the challenge posed by Croatia, a team known for its strong performances in previous tournaments, having finished as runners-up in 2018 and third in 2022.

The Opta supercomputer has identified Portugal as the favorites for this last-32 fixture, assigning them a 56.2% win probability compared to Croatia’s 19.5%. A draw, which would lead to extra-time and potentially penalties, has a 24.3% probability.

Key Players and Team Form

Much attention will be on Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, and Luka Modric, 40, as the two captains lead their respective teams. Martinez praised both players as icons, highlighting their contributions and leadership regardless of age.

Ronaldo has called on Portugal fans to create a home-like atmosphere for the match. He posted a message on Instagram, asking supporters to back the team in large numbers, stating, “make us feel at home.”

During the group stage, Ronaldo made his 25th FIFA World Cup appearance, matching German legend Lothar Matthaus for the second-most appearances in tournament history. Only Lionel Messi has played more World Cup matches with 29 appearances. Ronaldo also scored twice in Portugal‘s 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan, making him Portugal‘s all-time leading scorer in FIFA World Cup history with 10 goals, surpassing Eusebio‘s record.

Despite their strong record, Ronaldo has never scored in his eight previous World Cup knockout games, attempting 29 shots without finding the net. This is the joint-most by any player on record since 1966, alongside Brazil‘s Roberto Carlos.

Portugal finished second in Group K after drawing with DR Congo and Colombia, alongside their win against Uzbekistan. They are currently unbeaten in their three games at World Cup 2026, having achieved a win and two draws.

Midfielder Vitinha has been influential for Portugal, completing 270 passes in the group stages, the most by a Portugal player on record in the group stages of a World Cup. Against Colombia, he completed all 54 of his passes, achieving 100% accuracy.

Croatia’s Path and Head-to-Head Record

Croatia began their World Cup 2026 campaign with a 4-2 loss against England but recovered to defeat Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1, securing their spot as runners-up in Group L. They are now aiming to win three consecutive matches at a major tournament for the first time since the 2018 World Cup.

This marks the fourth time Croatia has reached the knockout stages of a World Cup, having progressed past the first knockout round in all three of their previous appearances in 1998, 2018, and 2022.

If Luka Modric plays in this game, it will be his 23rd World Cup appearance, placing him alongside Paolo Maldini and Manuel Neuer for joint-fifth most appearances in the tournament. Only Lionel Messi (29), Cristiano Ronaldo (who could extend his tally to 25), Lothar Matthäus (25), and Miroslav Klose (24) would have made more appearances.

Historically, Portugal has a strong record against Croatia, having lost only one of their 10 matches across all competitions, with seven wins and two draws. In competitive fixtures, Portugal is unbeaten against Croatia, winning five of six games and drawing one. Croatia has not won any of their last three matches against European opposition at the World Cup, with a draw and two losses.

Portugal has a 68.7% chance of qualifying for the last 16, while Croatia has a 31.3% chance of advancing to the next round. The match is scheduled for Friday.

Source: theanalyst.com