In recent weeks, a series of attacks attributed to Iran have severely impacted Qatar’s LNG supply capabilities, a critical source for countries like India. Qatar is responsible for approximately 40% of India’s LNG imports, making the situation particularly alarming for the Indian government and its energy security. The attacks have caused significant damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, sidelining 17% of its LNG capacity for an estimated 3 to 5 years, according to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi.

As the situation escalated, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for oil and gas shipments, became nearly impassable due to the ongoing Iranian assaults. This disruption not only affects LNG but also poses a risk to 90% of India’s LPG imports, which transit through this critical waterway. The ramifications of these attacks extend beyond immediate supply issues, as they threaten to destabilize energy prices globally.

Following the news of the LNG outage, European gas prices surged by 35%, reflecting the heightened anxiety in the energy markets. Brent crude prices also saw a brief spike of more than 10%, surpassing $119 per barrel. Such fluctuations underscore the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the potential for regional conflicts to have far-reaching consequences.

In response to these challenges, India is actively seeking alternative sources for LNG and LPG to mitigate the impact of the supply disruptions. Officials have indicated that they are attempting to procure cargoes from other suppliers, as noted by Sujata Sharma, who emphasized the urgency of diversifying sources. However, the ongoing instability in the region complicates these efforts.

India’s vulnerability is further highlighted by its heavy reliance on imports for its energy needs, with 85% to 90% of its oil sourced from abroad. The top five import sources for crude petroleum include Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the USA, which collectively account for around 83% of India’s crude imports in fiscal 2025. This dependency makes the country particularly susceptible to disruptions in the Middle East.

As the situation develops, officials like Randhir Jaiswal have called for restraint, urging that civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, should not be targeted in conflicts. The ongoing turmoil raises questions about the future stability of energy supplies and prices, with analysts warning that if the disruption through Hormuz persists, Indian buyers may have to resort to procuring higher-priced spot cargoes or even reducing consumption, as noted by Sumit Ritolia.

Currently, India is witnessing a 36% increase in domestic LPG production from refineries, a move aimed at bolstering its energy security amidst these challenges. However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain as the repairs to Ras Laffan are projected to take several years, leaving a multi-year supply loss in the LNG market. The unfolding events serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of global energy supply chains and the need for countries to adapt to an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

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Shares of Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL) were last seen trading 7.41% lower at Rs 522.10, reflecting the ongoing pressures in the market. The stock has been placed under the short-term ASM (Additional Surveillance Measure) framework by both the BSE and NSE, indicating heightened scrutiny.

Adani Total clarified that the recent stock price movement is purely due to market conditions. This decline comes as some gas suppliers have curtailed supply, influenced by geopolitical developments in West Asia, which have raised concerns about energy security.

In response to these challenges, the government has issued an order prioritizing domestic gas allocation for PNG and CNG used in transport, further impacting supply dynamics. Analysts note that support for the stock is expected at the Rs 500–512 zone, while immediate resistance is seen at Rs 555.

Jigar S Patel, a market analyst, commented, “Support is seen at Rs 500, while resistance is placed at Rs 555.” This suggests that traders should closely monitor these levels for potential trading strategies.

AR Ramachandran also pointed out that “Adani Total Gas’ stock is bearish on daily charts with strong resistance at Rs 604,” indicating that a significant recovery may be challenging in the short term.

Should the stock close below the support of Rs 512, it could trigger a fall towards Rs 463, raising concerns among investors about the stock’s future trajectory. As of December 2025, promoters held a 74.80% stake in the company, reflecting strong insider confidence despite current market volatility.

Additionally, the new industrial gas price has been set at Rs 82.95 per SCM, which may also affect the company’s operational costs and pricing strategies moving forward.

Overall, the stock price movement is influenced by a combination of market conditions and geopolitical developments. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term impact of these factors on ATGL’s share price.

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The government has decided to prioritize gas supply for household PNG and CNG, which may lead to a curtailment of supply for industrial users. This decision is expected to have varying impacts on companies such as Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL), Gujarat Gas Limited, and Mahanagar Gas Limited.

Impact on Companies

Gujarat Gas has approximately 49% of its total volume supplied to industrial and commercial consumers, making it particularly vulnerable to the supply changes. Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) and Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) have 16% and 13% of their total gas distribution allocated to industrial and commercial segments, respectively.

Analysts from Nomura estimate that a 20% curtailment in gas supply to these segments could impact MGL and IGL by around 3% each on their volumes. In contrast, Gujarat Gas is likely to face a more substantial impact, estimated at around 10% on its volumes due to its higher exposure to the industrial and commercial segment.

In Noida, the minimum waiting period for booking a domestic LPG cylinder refill has increased to 25 days, up from 21 days. This change affects around 10 lakh LPG connections in Noida and 12 lakh in Ghaziabad, with approximately 8,000 and 15,000 connections classified as commercial, respectively.

Despite these challenges, the supply of PNG and CNG in the region has continued without interruption. The gas supply network in western Uttar Pradesh is connected to the Hazira-Vijaipur-Jagdishpur pipeline operated by GAIL (India) Limited, which has so far maintained its operations.

Government Measures

Authorities have issued directions to ensure that domestic consumers do not face inconvenience in LPG supply. However, the prioritization of household needs over industrial requirements raises concerns about the future availability of gas for commercial use.

Looking Ahead

As the situation develops, observers will be closely monitoring the impacts on gas supply and the potential long-term effects on industrial consumers. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full extent of the curtailment’s impact on specific companies and sectors.

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Prior to recent developments, the distribution of Indane gas cylinders in Bengaluru was generally considered reliable. Customers expected timely deliveries and consistent pricing. However, this perception has been challenged by a recent incident involving a customer who accused Indane of fraudulent practices.

Decisive Moment

The situation escalated when Madhu Menon, a Bengaluru resident, discovered that gas cylinders were allegedly booked in his name but not delivered to him. He stated, “Got this message saying my last cylinder was delivered on 25 Feb and I can’t order again till late March. Except I haven’t ordered a new cylinder since early 2025! Then I discovered clear fraud!” This revelation has raised alarms among consumers about the integrity of the distribution process.

Immediate Changes

In response to the growing concerns, the Indian government has increased the LPG booking period from 21 days to 25 days. This change aims to provide consumers with more time to manage their gas supply amidst the ongoing issues. Additionally, domestic and commercial LPG cylinder prices were hiked just two days prior to this announcement, further complicating the situation for consumers.

Effects on Stakeholders

The allegations of fraud have direct implications for both consumers and businesses. Bengaluru hoteliers have warned of a potential temporary shutdown of eateries due to disruptions in LPG cylinder supply, which could impact the local economy. Siddaramaiah, a local political figure, supported the government’s decision, stating, “Their decision was right.”

Supply Assurance

Despite these disruptions, officials have assured the public that there is sufficient supply of LPG available in the country. However, the ongoing conflict in West Asia has been linked to supply chain issues, raising further concerns about future availability.

Expert Perspectives

Experts are calling for a thorough investigation into the allegations made by Menon. The situation highlights the need for transparency and accountability in the distribution of essential services like gas supply. As consumers navigate these challenges, the integrity of the distribution system remains under scrutiny.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the extent of the alleged fraud and its impact on the broader consumer base. The situation continues to evolve as stakeholders seek clarity and resolution.

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